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Week of 5/1

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Recap : Bearish theme continues in the global markets. Bulls were hoping that good tech earnings would save the market, however earnings and outlook were mixed with NFLX, AMZN, GooG disappointing while FB, APPL, MSFT and TSLA managed to show good numbers. Market is showing characteristics of a bear market and every bounce on any positive news seems like a selling opportunity. Bulls have lot of defending to do and it seems all big buyers are on a hiatus.  For the week SPX: - 3.27% COMPX: - 3.93% DOW: -2.47% IWM: -4.01% VIX: +18% Our proprietary breadth indicators show that two stocks are down for every stock that's up. Oscillator at negative 111 shows trend is to down side and this can go to an extreme of -270. Also the percent of stocks above 40 and 200dma is around 27 and 28 which is not an extreme level yet. At extremes these can go to 4% and 5% respectively indicating 96 to 97% of stocks are below those moving averages. Those extremes usually mark a temporary bottom. In addition...
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Market outlook week of 4/24

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 Recap: Indicies got rejected at the key resistance levels as expected and outlined in last weeks analysis. Growth concerns amid rising inflation sent bonds lower and yields rising.  Fed Powell's comments on possibility of 50 basis points increase in rates in next meeting accelerated the risk-off moods across all asset classes. Indicies fell for 2nd week in a row. For the week Nasdaq fell the most as growth stocks fell the most. SPX: -2.75% COMP: -3.83% Dow: -1.86% IWM: -3.16% Almost all sectors finished red during the week. Basic Materials: -5.82% Healthcare: -4.86% Financial Services: -2.03% Energy: -4.52% Technology: -4.66% Industrials: -1.55% Consumer Cyclical: 3.95% Communication Services: -3.28% Consumer Defensive: -.33% Real Estate: +.18% Utilities: -2.02% SPX (Monthly): Prices still within prior month range. But completing a probably abc move to downside. Could take out prior months range lows.  SPX (Weekly): Outside weekly bar bearish continuation. Price closed a...
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Market outlook week 4/17

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  Recap : Risk off theme persisted for the shortened week and resulted in a weak price action in Nasdaq and SPX. For the week SPX: -2.13% COMP: -2.63% DOW: -.78% IWM: +.55% Falling bonds are sending yields much higher. 10yr yields went to 2.83%. Resistance at 3.2% could see bonds fall further and sending yields higher. Nasdaq could see further price deterioration in the above scenario of bonds selling. Sector Performance : Communication Svcs: 1.77% Basic Materials: 1.52% Energy: +1.22% Consumer Defensive: -.18% Industrials: .55% Financials: 1.53% Health care: -2.53% Consumer Cyclical: -.19% Technology: -2.66% Vix: +7.28% Indicies: SPX (Weekly): Support at 50week ma did not hold after prices rose through it two weeks ago. Positive price action should have seen buyers defend that 21/50 week ma on that pullback to those levels last week. Instead price closed below all weekly MAs and closed lower for the week. Weak price action confirms that bearish move will continue unless price cros...
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