Market outlook week 4/17

 Recap: Risk off theme persisted for the shortened week and resulted in a weak price action in Nasdaq and SPX. For the week

SPX: -2.13%

COMP: -2.63%

DOW: -.78%

IWM: +.55%

Falling bonds are sending yields much higher. 10yr yields went to 2.83%. Resistance at 3.2% could see bonds fall further and sending yields higher. Nasdaq could see further price deterioration in the above scenario of bonds selling.

Sector Performance:

Communication Svcs: 1.77%

Basic Materials: 1.52%

Energy: +1.22%

Consumer Defensive: -.18%

Industrials: .55%

Financials: 1.53%

Health care: -2.53%

Consumer Cyclical: -.19%

Technology: -2.66%

Vix: +7.28%

Indicies:

SPX (Weekly): Support at 50week ma did not hold after prices rose through it two weeks ago. Positive price action should have seen buyers defend that 21/50 week ma on that pullback to those levels last week. Instead price closed below all weekly MAs and closed lower for the week. Weak price action confirms that bearish move will continue unless price crosses and closes above 4500 level.

SPX (Daily): Inside day on Wednesday did not see a follow through on Thursday. Highs were made first on Thursday and sold off to close at the lows on a shortened week. This is a negative price action as it suggests a lack of conviction from buyers. The only way this resolves to high price is to make a higher low and break above last weeks highs. 

Odds favor a continuation of prices to further downside completing the 5 wave move to downside.

SPX Hourly: Clean H&S break and test failure suggests measured move would test up trendline at 4200s.

Nasdaq (Weekly): Price broke below prior weeks low and below all MA's confirming bearish price action. Bonds falling and rising yields is not helping tech stocks and could see further price deterioration. There are no positive price action until price trades above highs or prior 2 weeks.

Nasdaq (Daily): 3 day price consolidation and Thursday's price action was weak with highs made first and closed at the lows of the day. Price now has closed below all MAs. Seems like a leg 2 or b continuation pattern. Also could be a wave 3 in progress. If price breaks above all the MAs then we could see abc move to upside. For now the odds favor price continuing to downside.

Dow (Weekly): Dow Jones have been relative out performer compared to other indicies.With Oil stocks outperforming and Financials performing better than tech, Dow was able to hold on to its gains. Price has to break above 35K for sustained up move to retest old highs. A break below 34k could see price following other weaker indicies.

Dow (Daily): 

IWM (Weekly):

Russell (Weekly)

IWM (Daily)

Russell (Daily)

VIX: 

Bonds - 30yr M:

30 yr W:

30yr Daily:

10yr Daily:

Commodities:

Cude (Weekly): 

Crude (Daily): 

Crude (Hourly):

Nat Gas (Monthly)

Nat Gas (Weekly)

Nat Gas (Daily):

Cocoa Monthly: 

Cotton Weekly:

Cotton Daily: (Setting up short)

Coffee Weekly: (Setting up short)

Coffee Daily: (short with scaled in orders)

Sugar Monthly:

Gold Weekly: 

Corn Monthly:

Corn Weekly:

Soybean Oil (Monthly):

Soybean Oil (Weekly):

Next week outlook: Market still seems to be on the edge with rising rates. 10 yr yields could go to 3% sending growth and nasdaq stock much lower. Looks like the March 21 prices could be taken out. Earnings season will be in full swing next week and will have to keep in mind some of the big winners could move markets. Bounces could shorted in Naz, SPX but need to be careful not to trade too many trades in the same direction.